Following a 27-24 defeat to the New York Jets, the Atlanta Falcons’ chances of making the NFL playoffs have dropped significantly. The New York Times’ playoff simulator now gives the team less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason with five games left in their schedule. However, this slim probability does not mean that it is impossible for Atlanta to qualify.
Several scenarios remain where the Falcons could still make the playoffs. For Atlanta to win their division, they must win all five remaining games. Additionally, they need specific outcomes from other teams: “Saints defeat Buccaneers in Week 14; Saints defeat Panthers in Week 15; Seahawks defeat Panthers and Dolphins defeat Bucs in Week 17; Panthers and Buccaneers split their head-to-head games in Weeks 16 and 18.” If these results occur, Atlanta could move into first place by the season’s end.
This path requires Falcons fans to support an unlikely ally—the New Orleans Saints—who need to beat both Tampa Bay and Carolina over the next two weeks. At the same time, Tampa Bay and Carolina can only win one more game each, specifically against each other.
The alternative route for a playoff berth would be through a wild card spot. In this scenario, “Falcons win remaining five games; Falcons do not win NFC South; Seahawks, Rams or Eagles lose out; Teams in wild card picture do not reach nine wins.” Since four teams currently have at least nine wins—including Seattle and Los Angeles—the Falcons must hope those teams do not add further victories. With upcoming games against some of these opponents, Atlanta has a chance to secure tiebreakers based on head-to-head matchups.
Regardless of which scenario unfolds, Atlanta must win all its remaining games for any possibility of advancing. Without such a streak, their postseason hopes will be extinguished.
