In the first eight weeks of the season, the Atlanta Falcons’ offense has struggled with inconsistency. When performing well, the team’s offensive unit has shown the potential of its talented roster. However, at other times, the results have been unpredictable.
The team is averaging 1.62 points per drive this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL and is their lowest output through seven games since 2023. In games they win, that average increases to 2.42 points per drive and a scoring rate of nearly 50%. In losses, those numbers drop to 0.98 points per drive and a scoring rate of 19.5%.
A closer look reveals that first down performance is a key factor in these outcomes. Using Microsoft Copilot to analyze Tru Media data, it was found that the Falcons’ first-down success rate is about ten percentage points higher in wins (46.6%) than in losses (36.5%). This pattern suggests that how well Atlanta performs on first down can predict game results.
When winning, the Falcons average 7.1 yards per play on first down compared to just 4.7 yards in losses. The team also produces more explosive plays—defined as runs of at least 12 yards or passes of at least 16 yards—on first downs during victories.
On first downs in wins, Atlanta ranks second in yards per rush (6.8) and seventh in yards per attempt (9.9). In losses, those rankings fall to 21st (3.8) and 30th (5.6), respectively.
In their three wins this season, the Falcons have recorded 15 explosive plays on first down and hold the fourth-highest explosive play rate for such situations in the NFL at 17%. During losses, their explosive play rate drops to under ten percent with only ten such plays.
There are also more negative or zero-yard plays on first down during losses—nearly ten percent more than in wins.
The team’s identity centers around its running game, which shows a significant difference between wins and losses on first down performance. In games they win, Atlanta’s rushing attack has tripled its output compared to when they lose; they rank second in rush EPA on first downs (+11.15) but drop to near last (-12.53) during defeats.
Overall EPA per play on first downs stands at -0.07 for the team this year; however, it improves from +0.05 EPA per play in wins to -0.17 EPA per play in losses.
Passing yardage remains similar regardless of outcome due partly to changes in strategy when trailing or leading late in games; still, net yards per attempt increase from 5.5 during losses up to 8.8 when winning.
Interestingly, sack rates (11.5% vs 1.8%) and interception rates (3.8% vs none) are higher for Atlanta’s offense during wins than losses—a sign that efficiency on early downs leads them to take more risks by pushing deeper into opposing territory.
Coaches often emphasize getting an initial first down each drive as it allows offenses greater flexibility while wearing out defenses over time—a process that begins with successful execution on first down.
